The improved outlook on the Government of India announced by rating agency Moody's might need to be viewed with some scepticism. There is no doubt the performance of the Indian economy has sharply improved from the deep trough it hit last year. But the ability of the second largest global ratings agency to assess an upside and downside before events make everyone wise about India has been dismal for a long time, as the chart shows.
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Tata Motors' 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) results were better than Street estimates, with strong showing across Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), as well as commercial and passenger vehicle businesses in the domestic market. The company posted its highest consolidated top line and operating profit, with growth of 35 per cent and 46.5 per cent, respectively, over the year-ago quarter. While the top line was aided by a 49 per cent growth in the JLR unit, all key segments reported margin expansion.
Info Edge (India) reported good Q2FY24 results with hiring across other segments helping offset weak IT performance. The revenue increased 11.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 593 crore, (up 1.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q). The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) margin was excellent at 40.7 per cent, up 200 basis points year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
Disappointing quarterly earnings numbers and revenue forecast from IT services company Wipro also weighed on investor sentiments. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 247.78 points or 0.38 per cent to settle at 65,629.24 points. During the day, it plunged 533.52 points or 0.80 per cent to 65,343.50 points.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Monday upped its banking sector outlook to 'positive' on healthy asset growth, improving asset quality and stronger capital buffers. The agency expects asset quality to improve to a decadal best of 4 per cent from a gross non-performing assets (NPAs) perspective by the end of FY24. The banking system's credit growth will slow down to 11-11.6 per cent in FY24, after a very healthy growth of 15.2-16.1 per cent expected in FY23, the rating agency said.
India's largest asset manager SBI Funds Management on Tuesday said they are negative on equities from a shorter-term perspective as valuations have risen above the comfort zone. "We are not positive on equities. We think valuations are expensive. "The market has gone up a lot more than the earnings have grown," said R Srinivasan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) - Equity at SBI Mutual Fund, at the launch of asset management companies' (AMC) yearly report on the market outlook.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
Markets to track inflation data, global trends, FII trading this week: Analysts New Delhi, Dec 8 (PTI) Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added. "The domestic stock market is likely to be shaped by a mix of global cues, domestic economic indicators, and the flow of investments from foreign and domestic institutional investors. Key factors like the rupee's exchange rate and crude oil prices will play a critical role in determining market trends. "Globally, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to pose challenges. However, recent declines in the dollar index and US bond yields have created a more favourable environment for emerging markets like India," Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the economic front, significant macroeconomic releases, including retail inflation and industrial production data from India as well as US core CPI, are expected to influence overall market sentiment, Gour added. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 1,906.33 points or 2.38 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 546.7 points or 2.26 per cent. "FIIs turning buyers in early December, in a total reversal of their sustained selling strategy during the last two months, has altered the market sentiments. The change in FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) strategy is getting reflected in stock price movements, particularly in large-cap banking stocks in which FIIs have been sellers," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. The release of US CPI inflation data will give some insights into the Fed's December meeting, an expert said. "The markets' attention is expected to turn towards macroeconomic indicators like IIP and CPI inflation. Additionally, the trend of FII inflows, following their recent buying spree, will remain a key focal point for market participants," Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said this week will see significant economic data releases, including GDP numbers from Japan and the UK, along with China's CPI and India's CPI.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
Tata Elxsi (TelX) reported a weak Q3FY25, with a sharp deceleration in the transportation vertical. However, recent deals in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), higher mix of original equipment makers (OEMs) and partnership with Qualcomm will improve growth. FY25 is the third successive financial year of revenue growth deceleration and second successive financial year of profit deceleration.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
The rating agency revised the outlook for EXIM, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank of Baroda (New Zealand), Bank of India, Canara Bank, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank while affirming their ratings. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed IDBI Bank Ltd's (IDBI) rating, while maintaining the outlook at negative.
Titan Company on November 21, became the second Tata group firm to join Rs 3 trillion market capitalisation (market cap) club after its shares hit a new high of Rs 3,400, up nearly 2 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade. At 12:28 PM; with a market cap of Rs 301,847 crore (Rs 3.02 trillion) Titan stood at number 16th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE listed companies, the exchange data shows. Titan overtook paint company Asian Paints, which has a market cap of Rs 300,579 crore, data shows.
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Despite volume growth in the export segment and strong demand in the domestic market, pricing uptick is eluding Indian agrochemical companies.
Infosys Ltd on Thursday reported a 4.7 per cent rise in the September quarter net profit and raised revenue guidance after broadbased growth. Net profit of Rs 6,506 crore in July-September was up 4.7 per cent when compared to Rs 6,212 crore earnings in the same period last year. It was 2.2 per cent higher quarter-on-year, according to a company statement.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
'The steel industry expects the government to decide on safeguard measures from dumping post-Budget'
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
The Indian IT services industry is expected to clock revenue growth in the mid-single digit for the financial year 2024-2025 (FY25), according to a report by Icra for the year.
The encouraging news, however, is that India features among the top four countries out of 44 nations that projected a positive hiring trend.
Mutual funds' equity buying remained elevated for the fifth consecutive month in December, taking the net equity purchase past Rs 1.7 trillion in 2023. The aggressive buying in December indicates that flows into equity funds are likely to have remained unaffected by the sharp run-up in the market last month. Mutual funds (MFs) bought equities worth Rs 23,000 crore last month (until December 28) compared to Rs 18,000 crore in November, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys jumped the most by 3.67 per cent. Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Wipro, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were among the other major gainers. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Titan, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 7 per cent on-year decline in June as severe heatwave conditions resulted in 15 per cent less showroom walk-ins, industry body FADA said on Friday. Overall passenger vehicle registrations stood at 2,81,566 units last month, as compared to 3,02,000 units in June 2023. "Despite improved product availability and substantial discounts aimed at stimulating demand, market sentiment remains subdued due to extreme heat resulting in 15 per cent less walk-ins and delayed monsoons," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) president Manish Raj Singhania said in a statement.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
'API prices are dragging down margins and impacting our competitive ability.'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the fundamental drivers of the Indian economy are gaining momentum and the country is moving on a sustainable growth path. In the inaugural address at FIBAC 2024, the governor said that massive changes are taking shape in various economic sectors and markets, and the country is geared for orbital shifts.
The primary market will remain abuzz with more than half a dozen companies, including Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, and NTPC Green Energy, lined up initial public offerings over the next two months to raise around Rs 60,000 crore, merchant bankers said. Apart from these three firms, Afcons Infrastructure, Waaree Energies, Niva Bupa Health Insurance, One Mobikwik Systems, and Garuda Construction are among the companies planning to launch initial public offerings (IPOs) during October-November, they added. Together, these firms are looking to raise Rs 60,000 crore through their IPOs.
UltraTech Cement's third quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q3FY24) performance saw a combination of 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) volume growth and 8 per cent revenue growth coupled with better realisations per tonne. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) stood at Rs 3,250 crore and Ebitda per tonne was Rs 1,191. Profit after tax (PAT) was reported at Rs 1,780 crore. Other income dipped and interest costs rose.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) disappointed the market even though some analysts said the Q3FY25 results were in line. Most analysts cut margin estimates. The insurer reported M9FY25 growth of 8.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in value of new business (VNB) premium to Rs 1,575 crore, while total annual premium equivalent (APE) grew 27.2 per cent to Rs 6,910 crore.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
Stocks of electronics manufacturing services companies have been major outperformers, with four of the top eight listed majors by market capitalisation doubling their value over the past 12 months. The biggest gainer in this space has been the market leader, Dixon Technologies (India), which is up nearly threefold.
'Asset allocation should be driven much more by long-term factors rather than the market scenario at any particular point in time.'
Cement companies posted mixed figures for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). Volume growth was robust at 17 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) - on an aggregate basis - for 15 cement companies, with revenue growth at 15 per cent. Aggregate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) were up 8.8 per cent Y-o-Y and 1.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
